Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 10.936699 12.255593 13.739346 15.546317 17.706770 20.231857 23.443744
2025-03-23 9.142672 10.800474 12.815112 15.490600 19.025006 23.647909 30.356339
2025-03-30 7.860297 9.593216 11.804024 14.911646 19.307773 25.545309 35.565472
2025-04-06 6.901441 8.620982 10.893134 14.224629 19.191539 26.711632 39.868518
2025-04-13 6.207824 7.901164 10.203622 13.700185 19.152233 27.893228 44.438128
2025-04-20 6.195223 8.090320 10.771406 15.051069 22.176126 34.636621 61.393707
2025-04-27 5.936585 7.897536 10.753262 15.484663 23.769569 39.304931 76.460636
2025-05-04 5.487975 7.385835 10.200585 14.976776 23.621305 40.612846 84.479313
2025-05-11 5.295380 7.234805 10.180760 15.340772 25.108459 45.613371 104.836168
2025-05-18 5.008023 6.915925 9.864042 15.148398 25.490063 48.320260 120.506556
2025-05-25 4.756360 6.633213 9.579476 14.975427 25.874286 51.142195 138.774184
2025-06-01 4.553059 6.411647 9.375371 14.922108 26.493225 54.734457 163.205750
2025-06-08 4.280481 6.073619 8.968343 14.479637 26.279190 56.323059 182.381423
2025-06-15 4.101458 5.875749 8.785272 14.448413 26.991792 60.795682 221.577978
2025-06-22 3.858862 5.559376 8.373729 13.923918 26.471027 61.489811 242.214230
2025-06-29 3.620903 5.238182 7.933044 13.299569 25.618780 60.930385 255.318674
2025-07-06 3.424151 4.975744 7.580267 12.822168 25.059456 61.193665 275.513151
2025-07-13 3.491729 5.157917 8.031954 14.050526 29.034532 78.817607 488.910274
2025-07-20 3.435441 5.124882 8.087270 14.443870 30.924636 90.135869 718.530933
2025-07-27 3.273014 4.899960 7.769820 13.983085 30.336909 90.874742 805.352511
2025-08-03 3.219639 4.862421 7.803241 14.313385 32.114016 103.327973 1244.970084
2025-08-10 3.109375 4.719044 7.624648 14.138858 32.347438 108.650574 1615.254754
2025-08-17 3.008036 4.586981 7.460184 13.981860 32.611889 114.425399 2158.091269